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Post by mainstreet on Apr 16, 2016 20:57:51 GMT
It's obvious to me that a lot of leagues in Europe are quickly having competitive balance problems on several levels.
*Some leagues are far superior to others, even if the population (and more pointedly, world rank or UEFA rank of the national team) doesn't warrant it. This actually in itself isn't a problem. But it can contribute to other problems. *A lot of leagues have huge discrepancies between haves and have-nots. Consider Paris Saint-Germain, dominating the French league to the point where it's kind of pointless. Or Celtic doing similarly, on a traditional basis, in Scotland. Or Olympiacos in Greece (although this one may have other issues behind it rather than strict noncompetitiveness.) *Clubs that want to get better, but play in bad countries, can't really do so. Even if they try to dominate, they'll still be held back by not playing enough games against high-quality opposition. Ironically, see, yet again, Celtic.
So I would like to propose a few different solutions to fix the problem.
The basic idea: Create regional leagues that allow teams to be promoted into and play against more than just their own "country" within the European Union. This increases competition at the top level, as top teams get more games against each other and fewer against clearly inferior teams. It also increases competition down the table, as teams that wouldn't have a chance against the Barcas and PSGs of the world now have a legitimate shot to win the league. Notably, I would not change the domestic cup system at all -- still give every team a chance to play everyone within their country, etc. This will necessitate a restructuring of UCL/UEL, in small part, at least. I will discuss how to restructure at the end of this. There will be modifications to the model indicated as to whether the European Free Trade Association is also included, because a case can be made for this.
Addressing a few counterarguments:
Increased Travel -- People that make this argument frequently say that teams can't handle traveling 2000km for away matches on a weekly basis. I call BS. Frankly, as an American, our teams do far more than this. Most of the travel in the leagues I propose will still be less travel than the NFL, and the season is twice as long! However, there is another point that it would be more challenging for fans to make trips to away matches. This is quite true, and I don't have an easy answer. But I do wonder if there would be a reduction in hooliganism this way. Make it so less away fans make it to the site of the match, cause less trouble... something to think on, at least.
Language Barriers -- A concern, but not a major one. We're only talking about changing things at the top of the pyramid. Clubs and Leagues can afford to have competent translators. Especially given how ubiquitous this is in Europe these days.
Border Crossing Challenges -- It's very very easy to cross borders within the EU, in general. I'm not worried. I do get the issue with nations outside the EU, and while I'd like to include all of Europe, it won't work. UCL and UEL still work for this.
Stakeholders vs. Pure Competition -- I get that my competitive numbers might not agree with countries' views of their own importance. So, the starting numbers for individual countries could be different from my suggestions. Overall it should more or less even out just fine, because promotion and relegation should take care of mistakes in short order.
Brexit -- I'm ignoring Brexit. Why? Because so is the UK Parliament. If this changes, changes to Region A will need to be made, as well as likely to the Champions League.
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Post by mainstreet on Apr 16, 2016 21:03:21 GMT
5 European Union Regional Leagues
This model takes the 33 members of UEFA in the European Union (while the EU has 28 members, the UK is 5 separate members of FIFA and the Faroe Islands are part of Denmark) and switches us from 33 parallel leagues at the first division, to having just 5 regional super-leagues. All 33 countries will still run their own leagues, but at the top, promotion into the international pyramid (and I use the term loosely, because EU) will be possible.
Region A "Archipelagic": England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Faroe Islands, (maybe Iceland) Region B "Western": Portugal, Spain, Gibraltar, France, Belgium, Luxembourg Region C "Northern": Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, (maybe Norway) Region D "Eastern": Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary Region E "Southern": Italy, Malta, Cyprus, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, (maybe Switzerland and Lichtenstein)
I could be persuaded to flip the Faroe Islands into Region C.
All 5 leagues would earn 4 automatic berths into the UEFA Champions League and 3 into the UEFA Europa League Group Stages. (The domestic cup winner of each nation still qualifies for UEFA Europa League qualification.) (I could be persuaded to lower the group stage number for Region C, potentially.) The other 12 berths in UCL would be handed out to non-EU members using similar rules to the current system, as would the 17 berths in UEL (though EU domestic cup winners would also be in the field of 17).
At no point here are we looking at more than 3000km for any individual travel point, with the possible exception of clubs in the far north of Sweden or Finland, but they would have similar issues just playing domestically.
The next five posts will detail what's going on in each region. They are not the same and should not be treated the same.
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Post by mainstreet on Apr 16, 2016 22:20:08 GMT
Region A: England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Faroe Islands, (possible Iceland)
Region A has 2 divisions, a total of 3 leagues. This region is set up with the acknowledgement that the English Premier League is way beyond most of the other countries.
First Division: EU Archipelagic Premier League: The top 16 clubs from the current EPL (presuambly including Welsh club Swansea), plus the top 2 Scottish clubs and top 2 Irish clubs. (EFTA modification: Select 2 Icelandic clubs, one less EPL club and one less Irish club.) 3 teams are relegated out of the Premier League each year. Their actual country will determine which of the Second Division leagues they will relegate to.
Second Division: English-Welsh Football Championship: The 4 relegated clubs from EPL and the top 20 clubs from the current English Football Championship. The winner of this league is promoted into the Archipelagic Premier League. The 2nd place team plays a 2-game promotion playoff with the second place team in the Four-Points Unity League for the final spot. 3* teams are relegated out of EWFC each year, either into the English Football League One or the Welsh Football League One depending on their country of origin. The handful of Welsh teams playing in the English system (and not in the top 2 levels) should flip into the Welsh League One.
Promotion into this league: 2 teams are promoted from the English League One, and 1 team is promoted from the Welsh League One.
Second Division: Four(Five)-Points Unity League: 10 clubs from Scotland, 6 clubs from Ireland, 4 clubs from Northern Ireland. (EFTA modification: 8 from Scotland, 5 from Ireland, 4 from Northern Ireland, 3 from Iceland) The winner of this league is promoted into the Archipelagic Premier League. The 2nd place team plays a 2-game promotion playoff with the second place team in the English-Welsh Football Championship for the final spot. 2* teams are relegated out of FPUL each year, into the correct league (Scottish Championship, Northern Irish Premiership, Irish First Division, Faroese Premier Division)
Promotion into this league: Each of the four leagues mentioned above sends their champions to a 2-game promotion playoff against a different league champion in a random draw. The winners are promoted. (Sidenote: If I was persuaded to pull Faroe Islands out, then relegate 3, hang the playoff and promote all the champions. Also the name obviously changes.) (EFTA Modification: If I include Iceland I'm much more likely to pull the Faroe Islands out, and the format does not change. If I don't, then the bottom team not already relegated from Unity League also participates in the playoff.)
*If more or fewer teams are relegated into this league from the APL than get promoted out of it, more or fewer teams must then also be relegated out of this league by the same count to keep the numbers balanced. The promotion numbers should not change.
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Post by mainstreet on Apr 16, 2016 22:37:54 GMT
Region B: Portugal, Spain, Gibraltar, France, Belgium, Luxembourg
This particular region only needs one division. We basically have 2 very large countries (Spain, France), 2 medium-sized countries that are very good at football (Portugal, Belgium), and 2 small countries (Luxembourg, Gibraltar). The former 4 are similar in quality, although the Spanish league has more quality, hence why it gets more clubs filling this league at the outset, and the smaller two aren't going to benefit from having to go through extra levels. (Arguably Gibraltar might, but they might just as easily get overwhelmed through the travel of that.)
EU Western Premier League: Spain (8), France (4), Portugal (4), Belgium (3), Luxembourg (1), Gibraltar (0)
The bottom 3 get relegated into the appropriate domestic first division. The champions of each of the 6 countries first divisions will be randomly placed into 3 pairs, and each pair will have a 2-game aggregate playoff for promotion into this league.
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Post by mainstreet on Apr 16, 2016 22:55:59 GMT
Region C: Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, (maybe Norway)
Sorry Denmark, but you'll need to go to a summer schedule like everyone else here. This region is the only region that will be running a summer schedule instead of the traditional winter schedule.
Because it's far too early in the season to sort out what good teams are, and most of the teams here are quite similar, this region's lists will look a lot rougher.
Sweden and Denmark are better than the others by a fair bit, but their leagues are not overwhelmingly so. They are enough better to allow promotion directly into the Premiership, however.
First Division: EU Northern Premiership: I would start with 6 clubs each from Sweden and Denmark, 4 from Finland, 2 from Lithuania, and 1 each from Estonia and Latvia. 3 clubs are relegated out of this league. Swedish and Danish clubs are relegated into their national first division. Other clubs are relegated into the second division. The Northern East Championship, Danish Super League, and Swedish First Division each promote their champion into the EU Northern Premiership. (If we add Norway, likely 4 clubs, taking 1 each from Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and Lithuania to start.)
Second Division: Northern East Championship: 6 Finnish clubs, 4 each from Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. (18 club league) 2* clubs are relegated out of this league. Promotion into this league: Each of the four nations in this sub-region sends their first division champions to a 2-game promotion playoff against a different first division champion in a random draw. The winners are promoted.
Second Division: Northern West Championship: 8 Norwegian clubs, 10 Swedish clubs. This league replaces the Swedish First Division on the pyramid if Norway is included. 2* teams are relegated out of this league, with the top team in Norway's and Sweden's new top leagues earning promotion.
(If the Faroe Islands are flexed into Region C, they would likely need a promotion path that involves going through the Danish Super League.)
*If multiple teams are relegated into this league, then relegate more clubs out of it by the same excess amount. However, if you would relegate 5 instead relegate 4 and require a second playoff series to only promote one team. (In the West, hold a single playoff.)
This one, I admit, is a bit of a struggle. It doesn't have any great leagues at all in it that need teams drawn out of it for more competitiveness. But it will likely increase overall competition to do this nonetheless.
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Post by mainstreet on Apr 16, 2016 23:09:34 GMT
Region D:Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary
Germany is obviously the top country here. But the Netherlands league is pretty damn good too. In fact, at first glance those two leagues would get the bulk of the clubs. But doing this makes it awkward to actually solve problems for the other leagues. So let's first pair the top two off, and also group the others. This gives us two divisions, three leagues, similar to region A.
First Division: EU Eastern Bundesliga: Germany (7), Netherlands (4), Poland (2), Austria (2), Czech Republic (1), Slovakia (1), Hungary (1) (18 clubs because no current first division league has more than 18 clubs) 2 clubs are relegated from this league, into the 2 West or the 2 East as appropriate.
Second Division: EU Eastern Bundesliga 2 West: 10 from Germany, 8 from the Netherlands 2* clubs are relegated into the correct domestic first division league. The champions of this league promote into the Region D Bundesliga. Promotion into this league: The champions of the German Bundesliga (likely the current BL2) and the Dutch First (mostly the current Second) Division automatically promote into this league.
Second Division: EU Eastern Bundesliga 2 East: The next 4 from Poland and the Czech Republic, and the next 3 from Austria and Slovakia, and the next 2 from Hungary. (16 clubs: again, in this sub-region no first division league is >16 clubs.) 2* clubs are automatically relegated into the correct domestic first division league. The champions of this league promote into the Eastern Bundesliga. The 14th* place club in this league is paired with the champion of its country's national first division. The four champions of each of the other national first divisions are randomly paired. These three pairs engage in a 2-game playoff for promotion (or survival, as the case may be) into this league.
*If both clubs relegated from the EU Eastern Bundesliga are from a West nation, then the West relegates 3 and the East only relegates 1 with the 15th place club entering the playoff. If both relegated from the Region D Bundesliga are from an East nation, then the East relegates 3 with the 13th place club entering the playoff and the West only relegates 1.
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Post by mainstreet on Apr 17, 2016 0:46:04 GMT
Region E: Italy, Malta, Cyprus, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, (maybe Switzerland and Lichtenstein)
(Note: When I consider possible EFTA expansion, I appear to ignore Lichtenstein. This is because all Lichtensteiner clubs play in the Swiss system and thus there is no differentiation between them for entry into this system.)
This region is interesting. This one is where travel can be painful... sort of. It's actually no worse than Region B in absolute terms of per-team. What it is, however, is sort of a "ring" around the Balkans that make things difficult. In fact, I find I need to declare 3 different Second Division leagues here in Region E, and this is with Italy participating in none of them, as Serie A will promote directly into the Southern Super League (before EFTA considerations):
First Division: EU Southern Super League: Italy (7), Greece (3), Romania (2), Croatia (2), Cyprus (2), Slovenia (2), Bulgaria (2) (Switzerland: 3 clubs, drop Italy to 6 and Slovenia to 1) 4 clubs are relegated from this league. This is harsh, but with 4 leagues looking to promote up, I need it. The champions of the Italian Serie A, the Mediterranean Championship, the Adriatic Championship, and the Black Sea Championship are promoted into this league.
As only the Italian league is greater than 16 clubs in this region, and does not participate in the Region E Second Division, all of the Second Division leagues are 16 clubs. Second Division: Italian-Swiss Serie A: Italy (13), Switzerland (7). League only plays if Switzerland is included, and replaces the general Italian Serie A in all respects here if it does. Relegate 3* clubs out of this league to the new national top divisions, with the top 2 from the Italian league and the top Swiss club earning promotion.
Second Division: Mediterranean Championship: Greece (8), Cyprus (6), Malta (2) (16 clubs: none of these nations are >16 club leagues at current first division) 3* clubs are relegated from this league. Again harsh for 16 clubs, but each national first division champion (Greece, Cyprus, Malta) will promote.
Second Division: Adriatic Championship: Slovenia (8) and Croatia (8) 2* clubs are relegated from this league. The First (Second) League champions from Croatia and Slovenia get promoted.
Second Division: Black Sea Championship: Romania (10) and Bulgaria (6) 2* clubs are relegated from this league. The Bulgarian and Romanian first division champions get promoted.
*If more or fewer teams are relegated into this league from the Region E Super League than get promoted out of it, more or fewer teams must then also be relegated out of this league by the same count to keep the numbers balanced. However, at no point should more than 4 clubs be relegated out of a league. If the Adriatic or Black Sea Leagues would attempt to relegate 5, instead require a playoff between the domestic league champions, and only promote the playoff winner, or consider expansion to 18 clubs and relegating 3. If the Mediterranean League would attempt to relegate 5, instead require a playoff between the Cypriot and Maltese champions for promotion, or consider expansion to 18 clubs and relegating 3. If it would attempt to relegate 6, instead expand to 18 and relegate 4. (If the Italian-Swiss league should attempt to relegate 5, the 2nd place Italian team does not promote, and 4 are relegated. If that league attempts to relegate 6, require a playoff between the top Italian and top Swiss team, and 4 are relegated.)
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Post by mainstreet on Aug 30, 2016 21:45:04 GMT
Re-designing the UEFA Champions League for the arrival of the European Union as a single entity
There are a few concerns with the current Champions League. The current format has 77 entries for the 54 countries (Lichtenstein is not involved directly -- but if EFTA joins then sufficient placement in the Southern League would qualify such a team nonetheless). In theory, fine. In practice, there are all sort of different levels of qualification that it's not only difficult to follow, it has a tendency to make things unfair.
I can simplify and clarify this structure greatly, thanks to the EU. (Note that doing this should be done at a one-year delay: play the regional leagues for a season before changing the Champions League.)
Let's start by separating UEFA into two sub-regions: the European Union (with 33 UEFA members) -- possibly including the EFTA as well (same as the league decision), thus increasing the total to 37 members, and the Rest of Europe (22 members, or 18 members of EFTA is included).
The European Union's membership commands much of the field as it is. For competition's sake, we're going to reduce the total number of entries to half the field, or sixteen entries.
But mainstreet, 16 isn't half of 77.
No, no it is not. Here's where the clarification process comes in. The EU will be awarded 16 spots in the group stage of the competition, with two teams in each group. It is much clearer to award slots in terms of their presence in the actual field of 32 that makes up the group stage. Fractional positions, then, can be awarded to indicate qualification.
Within the EU, I would allocate 3 spots to each regional league, and the last spot would be the winner of a 4-team qualification bracket between the 4th place teams in the Eastern, Southern, Western, and Archipelagic leagues (the Northern is clearly the weakest league here.) Thus, within the EU, we can at this point ignore notions of "coefficients" (although they could potentially be used to affect how that bracket is run in future years.)
There should possibly be a rule to prevent the same country taking all 4 of a league's slots. I am uncertain as to this rule's beneficiaries or necessity.
This leaves 16 spots for the final 21 countries (still no league for Lichtenstein). Fractional spots can be awarded.
By current coefficients, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and Switzerland are the only nations that get multiple CL slots outside the EU. I'll mess with this a bit, so we can simply look at a ranking table of sorts to set up the patterns. (If the slots look higher at the top, they should be, as they're getting 16 full slots on this side, more than they get now.)
#1: 2.5 slots (Top 2 teams to group stage, 3rd place to the Second Qualifying Round) #2: 2 slots #3-5: 1.5 slots (Top team to group stage, 2nd place to the Second Qualifying Round) #6-8: 1 slot #9-11: 0.5 slots (Top team goes to the Second Qualifying Round) #12-21: 0.25 slots (Top team goes to the First Qualifying Round)
Teams that enter in the First Qualifying Round should, upon entry into the Second Qualifying Round, always play a team that entered in the Second Qualifying Round.
(If we reduced to 18 countries, #3's second team should qualify directly, and #12's team should enter in the Second Qualifying Round.)
Side we have two clean "sides" (EU vs. not EU), consider keeping the EU in their own pods for the draw, and the rest of Europe in their own pods. So we'd have Pods U1, U2, R1, and R2 rather than 1, 2, 3, 4. (U = Union, R = Rest). Teams from the same EU regional league (or from the same EU country) should not be able to be in the same group.
Some might complain that this gives weak teams outside the EU too much of a chance. I don't believe that chances are bad things, and any potential of the CL lost to this is gained back through the higher level of competition in the main league as well as the improved EL as more teams drop into it.
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Post by mainstreet on Sept 3, 2016 23:48:41 GMT
Re-designing the UEFA Europa League for the arrival of the European Union as a single entity
The Europa League's problems are similar to the Champions League's problems. We will do some simplification here as well, however one core philosophy of the Europa League will be kept intact: that of maintaining that every nation's domestic cup winner will qualify for the Europa League, in at least some qualification round. As with the Champions League, there will only be two qualification rounds.
We will maintain the 48+8 Group Stage concept. (That is, 12 groups of 4, top 2 advance to the Round of 32, joined by the 8 third place teams from the Champions League groups.)
Similar to the Champions League, the European Union will get half the field in the Group Stage. That's 24 slots. Again, we'll discuss fractional slots.
First, award 3 slots, 1 to each team that entered the EU portion of Champions League qualifying and did not advance. Each of the 5 Regional Leagues shall get 2.5 slots (12.5 slots net). (The top two teams shall qualify into the group stage, and the next team shall go into the Second Qualifying Round.)
Each of the 33 Domestic Cup winners shall go into the First Qualifying Round (effectively .25 slots each), as shall the top team in the Northern league not already qualified. (This would change if the league that did not have a qualifying spot the champions league changed.) This yields a net of 9.5 slots.
Teams that entered in the Second Qualifying Round should not play each other in the Second Qualifying Round.
If a Domestic Cup winner qualified for the Champions League (or for the qualifying bracket of the Champions League, even if the team ends up in the group stage of the Europa League) the national federation may (pre-determined) select either the highest available finisher in the domestic cup or the highest available finisher in the regional league (if none available: in the domestic first division) to the slot that would have been filled by the domestic cup winner.
If a Domestic Cup winner qualified for the Europa League Group Stage or the Second Qualifying Round though standing in the Regional League, the next highest available finisher in that league shall enter the First Qualifying Round. (Available = not having already qualified by winning their domestic cup)
Modification for EFTA: With 4 additional Cup winners, reduce all Second Qualifying Round slots, except for the one from the "top" regional league (determined by coefficients or some other method) to First Qualifying Round slots.
(Both with and without EFTA) If a team that wins their Domestic Cup would also qualify for the First Qualifying Round of the Europa League through Regional League participation, they are skipped and the next available team is chosen to take that Regional League slot.
This leaves 24 Group Stage slots for the Rest of Europe.
First, a team that loses in Champions League Qualification goes to the next stage in the Europa League. This means 6 teams that lost in the Second Qualifying Round of the Champions League advance to the Group Stage of the Europa League (6 slots), and the 5 teams that lost in the First Qualifying Round of the Champions League advance to the Second Qualifying Round of the Europa League (2.5 slots total).
All 22 Domestic Cup winners advance to the First Qualifying Round. (5.5 slots).
So far we've effectively allocated 14 slots. 10 to go. We can now distribute slots by league, similar to the Champions League ranking table: #1-2: 1.5 slots #3: 1 slot #4-9: 0.5 slots #10-21: 0.25 slots
If we reduce to 18 countries due to moving the EFTA, we instead have 11 slots available and the table instead looks like: #1-3: 1.5 slots #4-5: 1 slot #6-10: 0.5 slots #11-18: 0.25 slots
Teams that entered in the Second Qualifying Round should not play each other in the Second Qualifying Round.
If a Domestic Cup winner qualifies for any stage of the Champions League (group, or either qualifier) or qualifies for the Group Stage or Second Qualifying Round of the Europa League, the national federation may (pre-determined) select either the highest available finisher in the domestic cup or the highest available finisher in the national first division to the slot that would have been filled by the domestic cup winner.
If a Domestic Cup winner also would qualify for the First Qualifying Round through their standing in their national first division, they are skipped and the next team is selected to represent their league.
Side we have two clean "sides" (EU vs. not EU), consider keeping the EU in their own pods for the draw, and the rest of Europe in their own pods. So we'd have Pods U1, U2, R1, and R2 rather than 1, 2, 3, 4. (U = Union, R = Rest). Teams from the same EU regional league (or from the same EU country) should not be able to be in the same group.
Some might complain that this gives weak teams outside the EU too much of a chance, just as in the Champions League. This is possible, but the league's quality as a whole is going way up here, due to the Champions League being somewhat shortened in terms of EU teams participating -- some of those teams now coming here. I think this will be a net positive.
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Post by mainstreet on May 24, 2021 17:45:51 GMT
So, a lot has happened since my last writeup on soccer in Europe.
Between COVID-19 and a declining global political situation, including Brexit, which I had previously ignored as it had seemed to be destined for eternal can-kicking, travel is more difficult. Most notably, I can't really ignore Brexit anymore.
Also complicating this is the disastrous attempt to set up a European Super League that would ignore all current systems and just be a major cash grab for already rich clubs.
But wait, I hear you say, isn't a super league exactly what you proposed last time? Why were you against ESL? Just jumping on the bandwagon of hate?
No. That design had almost nothing in common with my system. My system was an extension of national systems that respected the promotion and relegation construction of European soccer -- certainly, there were no guaranteed positions, nor did it inherently exclude large parts of the continent. Also, they were attempting to have their cake and eat it too -- continuing to participate in the domestic league competition, which served no real purpose there.
I will preface this by noting some hope: Several leagues have in fact seen a new-ish champion this season. We're starting to see a bit of movement. Domestic leagues are no longer quite the monolith the were.
I still think the above construction is more or less a good idea. I do need to do some slight redesign to account for Brexit.
Post Brexit Regional Changes
There is no more archipelagic league as part of the EU system. Theoretically we should re-letter the regions, but I will leave the remaining regions designated B through E for consistency and readability.
Gibraltar, too, would also no longer be in Region B, thanks to Brexit. Ireland and the Faroe Islands would both need homes... I will split them.
The short version of the "fix": Ireland joins Region B and the Faroe Islands join Region C.
More specifically, for Region B, I would give Ireland 1 place in the league to start, and only start with 7 Spanish sides. The promotion mechanics would remain as is.
Region C is a bit more complicated. I would essentially adopt my suggestion from before: Begin with only 5 Danish clubs, plus 1 Faroe club. Merge the Danish and Faroe first divisions otherwise -- at least, put a handful of Faroe clubs into the Danish Super League, with promotion spots from both the Faroe and Danish leagues immediately under it.
For the UK system itself, I still think the Premier League should be able to have teams from all four countries, and England and Wales should share a second division as well, and I think Scotland and Northern Ireland would also share a second division at that point, with each country having teams exclusive to their own country at the UK's third tier.
Champions League Update
So now there are 4 EU regional leagues, plus an extra non-EU league in the form of the Premier League. Clearly the Premier League should get 4 slots. For now, we'll say that this is qualification for the top league. So there are now 22 leagues, and we have:
#1 (UK): 3.5 slots (Top 3 teams to group stage, 4th place to the Second Qualifying Round) #2: 2 slots #3-5: 1.5 slots (Top team to group stage, 2nd place to the Second Qualifying Round) #6-7: 1 slot #8-9: 0.5 slots (Top team goes to the Second Qualifying Round) #10-21: 0.25 slots (Top team goes to the First Qualifying Round)
Europa League Update
Actually this is much simpler. I gave each EU league 2.5 slots + cup winners, and I would probably keep the UK at that position anyway, so there are effectively no direct changes.
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